Super Tuesday Musings

I am going to break out of the purpose of this blog for some Super Tuesday musings.  You will find no endorsements or predictions about who wins. If you want the most reliable predictions (in my humble opinion) check fivethirtyeight.com.

Some extremely random observations about politics on Super Tuesday.
 
I voted, I have my preferences. But I am not campaigning for or endorsing anyone in this blog entry.
 
Oklahoma is an outlier state in both party primaries today. I find that interesting. I think it is probably a cluster of random factors but it could be that Oklahomans are dissatisfied with the establishment in both parties.
 
No matter who wins in November, it will make a huge difference which party controls the House and Senate. I know we know this, but think about it.  A lot of those promises may be scattered like leaves in that wind that sweeps down the Oklahoma plains.
 
Clinton – I don’t think there is much difference between Clinton and Sanders when it comes to core beliefs. But Clinton believes in getting things done incrementally and indirectly at times. She would rather soft pedal an issue if hit helps her get elected and then push harder on it after.  If she wins the nomination I think the fact that Sanders has not challenged her on the email issue will work against her. It would be better for her to deal with it now than in the general election.
 
Sanders – He is refreshingly honest about who he is and what he wants to do. It will no doubt cause some rethinking of political conventional wisdom if he is nominated.   He has THE BEST commercials. (Bush had the worst.) His commercials stay on his positive message,which used to be standard procedure. in political commercials. (The negative ads were almost always the PAC ads. And even when negative ads were run by a campaign there was no mixing of negative and positive messages in the same ad.) I think it is also because of the editing and the intelligent use of music and graphics. Ad companies take note.
 
I believe that the Sanders campaign may find out that the Democratic nominating process is rigged something like the economic system that irritates Bernie Sanders so much.
 
Trump – He keeps doing things that would be considered big mistakes and coming out okay. His speech tonight seems to indicate a change in style.  This is going to have to happen for him to win.  The sooner he locks up the nomination the sooner he can change gears.  Not policies, but rhetoric. The longer his opponents can drag it out the harder it will be for him to make the needed changes. We shall see. I think pundits and prognosticators should learn from events so far to be careful about predictions about whether he can be nominated or win the presidency. So I will make none.
 
Cruz – Within the first 30 seconds of a commercial or speech you will hear the word “only.” Frequently “I am the only”. I know what the message is and why he says it, but once I noticed it I found it irritating.  It is usually something that he can do that his opponent can’t, thereby mixing the negative and positive message all right there in the same sentence.
 
Rubio – He is sharp, young (as presidential politics go), and erudite. He is 180 degrees out from Trump on the immigration issue. He could pick up some votes on it without going all Trump. I am not going to try to break it down here.  He could still be kind and magnanimous etc without following the establishment line on immigration. You can talk to me if you see me or want to FB chat. I am proud of him for being unwavering on this issue, but it is sinking his campaign.  There is a reason that Trump chose this as his  main issue and establishment Republicans.  He released his taxes to put some pressure on Trump but I was surprised that a US Senator makes $2.5 million in five years. Seems a little high.
 
Kasich – I like him! I think he would make a great neighbor and I would love to have him in my Sunday School class. He doesn’t seem to be lighting much of a political fire. There is a big problem with for-profit charter school corruption in Ohio and I think this could be a problem for him if any of the others thought he was a political threat.
 
Carson – An amazing human being with a professional resume that is second to none. I hope he doesn’t go away. Perhaps he could be surgeon general or play some other roll in health care policy in the USA.
 
Bush- I know he has suspended his campaign, but I find it odd that Oklahoma politicians followed his lead on education issues big time (and still are on ESAs and Charter Schools) which are funded by the same establishment donors but now Oklahoman’s have no interest in him at all as a candidate. Potential Republican candidates take note.

There.  I didn’t intend to tick anyone off, but since this is politics I probably did.   This is all about inspiring thought.   The education posts on this blog are designed to change opinions. Different sort of goal.

 

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